Here is the technical analysis of the S&P 500 Futures (ES) daily chart as of the market close on Friday, June 27, 2025.

The S&P 500 (ES) futures demonstrated significant strength, closing at record highs on June 27, 2025, alongside the Nasdaq futures. This resilience was notable, especially as it occurred despite a slightly disappointing Core PCE report (which showed a 2.7% increase vs. 2.6% expected). The market seems to be shrugging off some negative economic surprises, focusing on broader bullish sentiment and trade optimism.

Overall Trend and Price Action:

• The S&P 500 is in a strong uptrend across short, medium, and long terms. It closed up by about 0.52% on Friday, with the September 2025 E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) around 6220.75-6223.75.
• The index has been consistently making higher highs, signaling robust buying interest. The recovery from a low of 4,800 earlier in the year to current levels around 6,160-6,170 highlights a significant bullish run.
• It recorded its best weekly performance in over a month, up 3.4% for the week, and is on track for strong gains in June for the second consecutive month.

Key Levels (Support & Resistance):

• Current Highs/Resistance: The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high of 6177 on June 27th, and futures were hovering slightly above the January ATH.
  • Intermediate Resistance: 6170
  • Potential Resistance: 6200
• Immediate Support:
  • Around the 6150 level (close to the January All-Time High), which could now act as immediate support.
  • Further support at the Resistance-turned-Pivot 6100.
• Stronger Support:
  • The 1-hour 200-period moving average at 6040.
  • Important daily support levels were identified around 6069 (mid-June high, now potential support on re-test) and 6029 (launch pad of the recent rally).
  • The “line in the sand” for the bullish trend was cited at 5908 (Monday’s low), a break below which would signal a first lower low and potentially negate the short-term bullish bias.

Moving Averages:

• The general alignment of moving averages indicates a strong bullish bias.
• A significant development is the 50-day moving average on the verge of crossing above the 200-day moving average, forming a “Golden Cross.” This is widely considered a bullish signal for long-term trend continuation.
• Short and medium-term moving averages (5-day, 20-day) are significantly below the current price, confirming the upward momentum. For example, the 5-day MA is around 6,157.80 and the 20-day MA around 6,072.42 (as of June 27th futures data).

Technical Indicators:

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): The 14-day RSI is around 68.88% or above 70% in some analyses. While above 70% suggests strong positive momentum, it also indicates overbought conditions. This implies that while buyers are in control, a healthy pullback or consolidation might be due.
• Stochastics (9,6): Values around 68.853 or 94.55% for 14-day, suggesting the market is nearing or in overbought territory.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD oscillator is showing a “Buy” signal (around 32.1 for daily, 5.76 for Micro ES), reinforcing the bullish momentum.
• Williams %R: Around -18.085, confirming overbought conditions.
• ATR (Average True Range): Noted around 17.7372, indicating “High Volatility” in some readings, while others state “Less Volatility” at 5.75 for Micro ES. This could reflect differing timeframes or calculations, but generally, higher volatility would suggest larger price swings.

Chart Patterns (Based on textual descriptions):

• The daily chart “highlights just how volatile equities have been in the first half of 2025,” but the recent 3-month recovery has been powerful.
• The market is operating within a “rising trend channel” in the medium term, which indicates increasing investor optimism and expectation of continued rise.
• A recent break above the 6100 resistance level is considered a positive long-term signal.

Outlook and Key Considerations:

• Sustained Bullish Momentum: The S&P 500 is clearly in a robust bullish phase, driven by receding tariff concerns, generally encouraging economic data, and hopes for earlier interest rate cuts.
• Overbought but Strong: While several momentum indicators point to overbought conditions, in strong bull markets, prices can remain elevated for extended periods. The presence of a “Golden Cross” further underpins this long-term bullish outlook.
• Reaction at New Highs: Shankar, as you know, the key will be how the ES futures react at these fresh all-time highs. Can it sustain new levels, or will we see profit-taking and a consolidation phase?
• Economic Data & Fed Commentary: Despite Friday’s PCE data, the market largely ignored it, but future economic releases (especially inflation and jobs data) and Federal Reserve commentary will continue to be critical catalysts.
• “Buy the Dip” Mentality: The recovery from earlier lows suggests a strong “buy the dip” mentality among investors, which could provide support on any pullbacks.

Summary: S&P 500 futures are exhibiting powerful bullish momentum, breaking into new all-time high territory. While overbought signals are present, the underlying trend and moving average alignments suggest a continuation of the upward trajectory. Close monitoring of price action around these new highs and reactions to upcoming economic news will be essential.

Bonus Trade: Traders should stay long above 6000 for target 6400.  (This was also given earlier when SP500 futures were near 5800).