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Commodity Trading, Crude Oil, Market Research

Nymex Crude Oil Trading Analysis – 10Nov2025

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Nymex WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures on the daily chart are showing a generally neutral-to-weak bullish trend, but recent technical signals suggest increased downside risk. Price has hovered near $60.00 USD per barrel lately, up slightly from the previous day but still down over the past year.​

Most importantly, the price is still below 50 Day EMA, which is an important trend line, and resistance line. Crude Oil futures are recovering from sharp corrections ($56-57 level) but not able to move above the 50 day EMA ($61-62 level). Long trades below 50 Day EMA are not safe, and large positions can’t be taken currently.

Nymex WTI Crude Oil (CL) Futures Trading Strategy

Buying can be done on sharp corrections ($56-57 level) for targets just below the 50 day EMA ($60-61 level).

Trend and Momentum

  • The overall daily trend is NEUTRAL, with 60% of moving average signals bullish as of late October 2025, but recent action signals possible trend weakening toward neutral or slight bearishness.​

  • Short-term indicators—such as momentum oscillators (MACD, Chande, Williams %R)—are largely neutral or mildly bearish.

  • Bearish crossovers have recently occurred with the 20-day and 100-day moving averages, indicating the potential for further weakness.

  • The RSI (14) is around 51, suggesting indecision rather than clear overbought/oversold conditions.​

Recent Volatility and ATR

  • Daily trading ranges have recently been between about $ and $ USD, reflecting low-to-moderate volatility.​

  • Projecting with ATR-based methods, larger price swings should be expected if support or resistance breaks are accompanied by higher volume.

Summary Table of Technical Indicators

Indicator Value/Signal Interpretation
RSI (14) 50.91 Neutral
MACD 0.93 Slightly Bullish/Neutral
20/100-day MA Crossovers Bearish Weakness Emerging
Daily Range/ATR (approx.) 0.7 Quiet to Moderate
Support 57– 60 Near-term Support
Resistance 62 – 64 Upside Hurdle

Recent technicals suggest keeping a close watch for any breakdown below $ or breakout above $ for significant moves.

Natural Gas Futures, Reports

Natural Gas Trading Lessons

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Most important points for Natural Gas Trading.

Please remember this very important point: In the last 35 years of Natural Gas (NG) futures charts — from April 1990 to October 2025 — NG has never been able hold on to higher levels above $5 for any longer duration than 3-4 months, because the Natural Gas production keeps rising rapidly often outpacing the demand, so the NG prices remain between $2-4 per MMBTU for most of the time, with $3 per MMBTU as the long term support level. That rate seems to give enough profit for the Natural Gas producers to remain profitable. So at higher rates like $7-8, the Natural Gas producers themselves become big sellers of NG futures, to lock in the higher rates, because they know that NG production will rise rapidly at higher rates, which will take NG rates down.

So when you see higher rates like $6-7 per MMBTU or more, you must take profits on your long positions and become very cautious with fresh new long positions. Above $5, it will be a very bullish sentiment, and trading gains can come rapidly in that zone. Keep your position size in control. Work with strict stop losses, to avoid large losses from sharp corrections.

NG has not been able to hold any rates above $5 for long duration. Any price spikes above $5 would most probably be due to short covering or market technical reasons, and not fundamental reasons, because  the supply of Natural Gas keeps rising to meet demand. Experienced traders can consider selling NG futures at rates above $7 for the inevitable correction back to $3. 

Remember this: NG is not Gold. NG has no appreciating property.
NG is closer to Oxygen, and even more abundant than Crude Oil.
Everybody needs Oxygen but you can’t command a big price for it.

The best way to make money for Natural Gas Trading is to work month to month, and live in the present, focus on the current technical setup and trade accordingly. Don’t predict the future, and don’t look too far. Trade for this month.

The inherent volatility of NG futures is a big opportunity for traders. Holding NG won’t make you rich, but trading NG can surely make you rich. Thanks. Wishing you all the best!

Shankar AVSB
Founder, Jupiter Futures
Founder, MarketStar Commodity Trading