Nasdaq Futures Analysis- 27June2025

Let’s analyze the Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ) based on its daily chart performance as of the market close on Friday, June 27, 2025.

Overall Trend and Price Action:

  • The Nasdaq 100 futures have been exhibiting a strong upward trend in the medium to long term. This is indicated by the continuous rise in price and the general sentiment of increasing buy interest among investors.
  • Recent price action suggests the index has been maintaining its bullish momentum, closing higher on Friday, June 28th, with the September 2025 contract (NQU5) closing around 22740.25, up over 70 points.
  • The index has consistently been making higher highs and higher lows, a classic sign of an ongoing uptrend.

Key Levels (Support & Resistance):

  • Current Resistance/New Highs: NQ has been trading near or at all-time highs. The June 27th data indicates a high of 22,825.50, which acts as immediate resistance or a level to watch for potential breakouts.
  • Immediate Support: Given the recent upward movement, immediate support levels would be observed around the 22,600-22,670 range, which was Friday’s settlement and low.
  • Stronger Support: Looking back at recent data, there’s a notable support area around 21,500-21,700. Some analyses mention a “return towards the low liquidity zone around 21,700” if there’s a negative reaction to economic news. Further, levels like 21,440 and 20,340 have been identified as significant medium-term pivotal support points. A breakdown below these levels could signal a shift in the bullish scenario. 

Moving Averages:

  • The overall bullish trend is reinforced by the positioning of various moving averages. Most short-term and medium-term moving averages (5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, 200-day) are generally indicating a “Buy” signal, or at least showing upward trajectories, suggesting sustained positive momentum.
  • The 5-day simple moving average  (SMA) is  near 22,720 and the 20-day SMA is near 22,730, with exponential moving averages (EMA) also showing bullish alignment. This generally implies that the current price action is well above these averages, supporting the uptrend.

Technical Indicators:

  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The 14-day RSI is around 70% or higher, which suggests strong positive momentum. While this indicates strength, for some traders, an RSI above 70 can also signal that the index is overbought, potentially hinting at a chance for a downward reaction or consolidation in the near term.
  • Stochastics:  Stochastics is around 99.37, suggesting an overbought condition.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD is noted as a “Buy” signal, confirming bullish momentum.
  • Volume: Some reports from earlier in June indicated that volume had been low at price tops and high at price bottoms, which could slightly weaken the rising trend and be an early signal of a potential trend break. It’s important to observe recent volume trends.

Chart Patterns (Based on textual descriptions):

  • Some analyses mention that on the weekly chart, price has consolidated upward but has mostly rejected pushes into all-time highs, with “two untested highs” remaining above current levels.
  • A “rising wedge” pattern has been noted on the daily timeframe, which is often considered a bearish reversal pattern, but it can also signal a breakout continuation. Confirmation is key for this pattern.
  • Recent comments mentioned the NQ had a “bullish confirmed with 3 bar trendline” and was approaching “resistance of this all-time high at 22,820 after bounce off support at around 21,500.”

Outlook and Key Considerations:

  • Continued Bullish Sentiment: The market broadly remains in a bullish phase, driven by factors such as speculation of earlier interest rate cuts and continued optimism in the tech sector, potentially fueled by developments in AI (e.g., Nvidia’s performance).
  • Overbought Conditions: The high RSI and Stochastic readings suggest that NQ might be in overbought territory, increasing the potential for a pullback or consolidation. However, in strong trends, overbought conditions can persist for extended periods.
  • Reaction at All-Time Highs: As you know well, Shankar, when an asset approaches or tests all-time highs, it can either break through, pause for consolidation, or reverse. The reaction at these levels will be crucial.
  • Economic Data: Upcoming economic data and central bank commentary (like Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony earlier in the week) will continue to influence market direction.

Summary: Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ) exhibit a robust uptrend with strong momentum as of June 28, 2025. While some indicators suggest overbought conditions, the overall technical picture remains bullish, with traders closely watching how the index interacts with current all-time high resistance levels.

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