Crude Oil Futures Analysis – 30Apr2020

Crude Oil Futures have done near complete liquidation or capitulation that’s possible in markets. Now, its a new Crude Oil, and the downtrend has been broken this week. Current price is near $19 per barrel, and the upside target till $30 is visible, even as part of basic recovery in demand and increase in storage space, which is likely once the US economy restarts in May-June 2020. The supply side has been damaged in this massive price correction since Jan 2020, and that could push WTI crude prices up, and in fact make it the same as Brent Crude once the WTI upward journey starts. The real target is $50 per barrel, which maybe hit by April 2021 if global economy recovers by Feb 2021.

Crude Oil Futures Analysis- 13Jan2020

Fundamental Analysis: Crude Oil futures have been correcting ever since they hit a high of $64.50 per barrel at the height of USA-Iran tension, and with calm returning back to the Middle East, the Crude Oil prices have been correcting daily, because supply is coming up constantly in the USA and the global demand is still the same, and not really rising faster than supply. So it’s also in the interest of Crude Oil producers to keep the Crude Oil prices under control without unstable price spirals. $50-60 looks like a price band that can provide stable price zone in the near term.

Technical Analysis: Crude Oil futures are giving Sell signal on various indicators on various near term time frames. Traders can sell with $61 per barrel as Stop loss, because if the current correction is real, then 61 should not come in the first place. Most Stop Losses on Sell trades will be at 60, so that is not suitable as a Stop loss, it should be a bit higher to avoid being caught in a unsustainable price spike due to short covering.

[Bonus Trade] Sell Crude Oil at 59 for Target 55 with Stop loss 61.

Crude Oil Support & Resistance Table – 13 Jan 2020

Support & ResistanceLevelExplanation
Resistance 260.630Daily R2
Resistance 159.971Daily R1
Support 158.269Daily S1
Support 257.694Daily S2

Crude Oil Indicator Table – 13 Jan 2020

IndicatorSignal
SMA 20Sell
SMA 50Sell
SMA 100Sell
MACD( 12;26;9)Sell
RSI (14)Sell
Stochastic ( 9;6;3)Sell

Crude Oil Indicator/ Timeframe Table – 13 Jan 2020

Indicator / PeriodDay – SellWeek – SellMonth – Buy
MACD( 12;26;9)SellBuyBuy
RSI (14)SellSellBuy
SMA 20SellSellBuy