Tag Archives: Crude Oil Trading Strategy

Crude Oil

Crude Oil Futures Analysis- 18Feb2020

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Fundamental Analysis
Crude Oil futures traded lower during the Asian session at 51.95, tracking losses in financial markets on concerns over the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China and its effect on oil demand. The number of new coronavirus infections in mainland China fell below 2,000 on Tuesday for the first time since January, Chinese health officials said.

The International Energy Agency said last week that the coronavirus was set to cause oil demand to fall by 435,000 barrels per day year-on-year in the first quarter, in what would be the first quarterly drop since the financial crisis in 2009.

Investors are also anticipating that the OPEC and its allies, including Russia, will approve a proposal to deepen production cuts to support prices. Oil output from Libya has fallen sharply because of a blockade of ports and oil fields by eastern-based commander Khalifa Haftar. Libya’s National Oil Corporation(NOC) said on Monday that oil production was at 135,745 barrels per day Monday, compared with 1.2 million bpd before the stoppage.

Technical Analysis
Indicator – Signal
SMA 20 Sell
SMA 50 Sell
SMA 100 Buy
MACD(12;26;9) Buy
RSI(14) Neutral
Stochastic(9;6;3) Buy

Support & Resistance Table
Resistance 2 52.75 Daily R2
Resistance 1 52.35 Daily R1
Support 1 51.56 Daily S1
Support 2 51.18 Daily S2

Crude Oil

Crude Oil Futures Analysis – 25Sep2019

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Crude Oil Futures have been correcting almost daily since the large spike in prices on 15-16 Sep 2019 after the accident at Saudi Aramco refinery, which has about 5% of global capacity. That price spike was mostly on short covering and with the assurance from Saudi Aramco that their refinery output will be fully restored by end of Sep 2019.

WTI Crude Oil Futures are bullish above $54 per barrel, and they have already formed a strong base at 50-52 level. Brent Crude also has bullish outlook above $60 per barrel.

As shown in the above chart, there are multiple trend lines offering support to prices between 53-55 levels. These are suitable levels for buying for 1 dollar gain per trade.

Our Crude Oil Futures Trading Strategy is to buy at all levels between $50-55 per barrel, for selling between 55-57 levels. These trades are likely to restart from October first week. We will consider 50 as the absolute stop loss for all long positions.